baggy pants

market vibes

August 18…)

King Pyrrhus of Epirus, after defeating the Romans at Asculum in 279 BCE, famously said, "One more such victory and we are undone".

In the news, Ukraine & company come to Washington to ink a deal or not. Judging from Trump’s tweets, the president will not commit American blood to the Ukrainian battlefield ever, full stop.

As I understand it, Putin has never changed his demands. He made them before the war to avoid it. He has made the same demands repeatedly since 2022. And these are the terms to which Europe must agree or fight on themselves, sending their sons and daughters to die. As I wrote yesterday, Zelenskyy has nothing but a devastated country. Europe has no weapons, no money, and no armies.The lack of money is the key element in these negotiations because Trump is not only done funding the war, but Europe is getting a bill COD for American weapons to send on to Zelenskyy.

There will be no spoils to share today, just dry bones to bury, in my opinion. However, there is the future of a nation famously endowed by nature with extraordinary wealth, to wit: the reason this war was fought and lost in 2014. Who wins? Mother Russia, again. More on that in the vibe today.

In the markets

Gold is seated in the front row, patiently waiting for the curtain to go up on the last act of this epic tragedy.

Moving along a week from Jackson hole, most markets are circling in a holding pattern. Oil is waiting for clues like gold, stocks are high but never in want for bullish narratives from Wall Street. The latest are higher Q2 earnings revisions via Citi. Eur/Yen at multi-years highs, bitcoin may be in for a spill and a baggy rite of passage in the vibe….