back to the grind

market vibes

May 8 …)

“It will be a nice day if it doesn’t rain.” Anonymous

A mixed bag of Thursday data signifying little since we have transitioned from data-dependent to wait-and-see, which has no visible rules or limits, just motionless patience.

In the news

Trump is expected to announce a trade deal with the UK at 10:00 AM EDT, according to a tweet on Truth last night. The BOE is sure to cut 0.25 bps.

Israel is bombing Lebanon, lest we forget they are at war. Putin offered a 3 day cease fire beginning on May 10. Zelensky rejected it. Pakistan shot down 25 Israeli made suicide drones, according to Haaretz world news. The Rupee has been trading lower and local euities are weakening. WAPO says, “India evacuated thousands of people from villages near the highly militarized frontier in the region.”

JPM is bearish on stocks (Wells is wildly bullish). Chinese import premiums for copper are cresting $100/ton due to a surge in local demand. On the Comex, copper is down 10 big handles. GS sees inflation rising to 3.8% in Q4 but falling to 2.7% next year (GOOG via GS.com). Saudi market share gambit will succeed if it doesn’t fail, according to sources. Still no bounce in USD/TWD.

Arnold Schwarzenegger is the wealthiest actor in the world (Esquire Magazine).

In the markets

Bitcoin is over $100K. There is no news, per se. The common thread is progress in tariff negotiations (BBG) and something to do with the psychological attraction of large numbers… seriously.

Next up, a gander at the stock market, gold forming a range and oil firmly in one, plus the dollar this morning and a look back at the future from the perspective of data dependent policy.