applesauce

market vibes

December 29… )

“Don't be alarmed, ladies and gentlemen. Those chains are made of chrome steel.” Carl Denham 1933

With just two trading days to go in 2024, markets are harder than ever to read: a go-go stock market, a probative Fed Chair, an imminent and peaceful transfer of power in America, possibly Canada and Europe as well, and a remarkable libertarian transformation in Argentina.

OPEC is in a state of toothless decrepitude. The promise of abundant energy in every form imaginable from fossils to fission is a matter of capacity not scarcity. The only thing standing between its promise and reality is government.

In the East, half the population of the world is buying gold, divesting itself of Western values, treaties, and trade. The American 21st century, once called “the era of forever wars,” is now seeking an imminent peace in places where Americans have spent trillions in places with names they cannot spell and to which they will never travel.

The contemporary metrics surrounding financial markets are beyond any I have ever seen. Ten stocks equal 40% of the market cap of the S&P, and the U.S. stock market itself is nearly 49% of the market cap of the entire planet. Based on returns, investors think these stocks are a safer bet than 10-year U.S. Treasuries, a measure not seen in 50 years. Gold is at record highs, gasoline in the NY harbor is cheaper than it was in July 2005.

Bitcoin, lacking even the smallest particle of physical matter, born of grifters and scams, exists in a new and nameless dimension: your mind. And upon that dreamy illusion, the architects of risk have created a virtual creature into which the masses are pouring their savings and hopes.

Change is everywhere and rising. The question I am asking is: can dominant trends in force today, remain in force when all else is changing around them? So let’s begin a seasonal and technical checkdown and see what 2025 might portend for some of them.