If you're numbers are correct and there's In fact a surplus to pre SOH. Why is the US drawing down the SPR? Why is most of the world hyperventilating over the"crisis"? Are the couple of hundred NYMEX traders the only ones who see the light?
THe US and other IEA member nations agreed to release 400 mm bbls between Mid march and early July. The US is honoring that committment and it's an excelent deal ... they had ca 450 mm bbls when the releases were agreed and we will have at least 650 mm bbls by Nov 2028 at no cost to taxpayers. Repayment begins ratably in Nov 2026...
I don't know why these facts are not better known. I think the media is a for hire propaganda industry and the narrative are uniformly misleading. I have been trading oil all my life so my "bullshit meter" is quite precise. I may not know something exactly because there are so many nuances and details to keep in mind... but I know when something is not right. it just takes me time to sift the facts and finally figure it out.
The tell is always when prices do not validate narratives. From that point you just have to work backwards until ... you get to the truth.
I don't question your experience as a trader which is why I shell out my hard earned money every month. I spent 40 years on the upstream end of the business finding the stuff so that you'd have something to trade. But I see the price of oil plunge 5% on the strength of a Trump tweet only to bounce back 3 days later on different news. The market has become reactionary because there's so much conflicting information with no one able to separate truth from fiction.
If there is no disruption why did the US agree to the SPR release? I am old enough to remember Trump blasting Biden for SPR releases in 2022. If narrative follows price, if an entity can effect price and vol, that entity can effect the narrative. If there truly is some master 5 D chess going on and Trump has this all under control, explain the US losing multiple military bases in the GCC and having to evacuate the Bahrain naval base. Just like TDS creates blind spots the opposite of TDS creates blind spots. Trump in 2026 is not the Trump who ran in 2024. Something shifted.
Hi Brett, I'm focusing on supply of crude oil and the perception there's a shortage of it. Strategic reserves were created to be released when needed. The banks and gurus on X have been spinning the narrative we will effectively run out of reserves ar 7 to7.5 billion barrels. That sounded fishy to me so I got the facts and wrote about them ...
Trump posted this 20 minutes ago TRUTH..
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Fair enough. You mentioned you started digging as narrative didn't match price. Multiple oil hedge fund and private equity oil participants indicated they believe oil is being capped around $100. These same hedge funds have had good years so far so are not blaming shit risk management on outside risk factors. Bessent said selling futures was on the table to warn the market ahead of time. Japan just did the same. A citadel oil trader is on record of having convsations with the admin about oil markets. If price leads narrative then if someone can effect price they can effect narrative. I don't know enough about SPR operational levels. It is my understanding that the levels don't matter as much as daily max flow rates which may be around 2 mbd on a global basis.
JJ, do you believe that status quo in SoH won’t tighten crude oil and oil products inventories further, even if conflict is not resolved and free passage of oil through SoH is not restored? Has global SnD reached equilibrium at this price range of 100-120$ per bbl of Brent, to your opinion?
JJ, thanks for this update. while my expertise is not oil per se, I have been in the markets for 45 years and have a fair sense of how things ought to behave. it is often said that narrative follows price, and I think that is generally true. however, in this case, it is very clearly not the case. rather the narrative is making a huge effort to overcome the price action but to what exact end I do not know. are there some large specs or traders caught offside, long oil at higher levels trying to get it back toward the early march highs so they can cut and run? I would not be surprised if Iran, itself, was pushing the narrative as an attempted psyop against Trump and the US.
But no matter how I look at the oil market, there is no evidence there is a shortage of any kind globally. certainly, there are places that have seen interruptions in their previous supplies, but it's around.
ironically, if it is Iran working to keep the price higher, it will really backfire on them as more production comes online elsewhere that removes them from the equation, at least over time
Thanks JJ. Many publishing similar stuff out there wouldn’t have gone to the trouble.
Credibility lost is not easily regained.
Thanks JJ for revibbing your vibe!
If you're numbers are correct and there's In fact a surplus to pre SOH. Why is the US drawing down the SPR? Why is most of the world hyperventilating over the"crisis"? Are the couple of hundred NYMEX traders the only ones who see the light?
THe US and other IEA member nations agreed to release 400 mm bbls between Mid march and early July. The US is honoring that committment and it's an excelent deal ... they had ca 450 mm bbls when the releases were agreed and we will have at least 650 mm bbls by Nov 2028 at no cost to taxpayers. Repayment begins ratably in Nov 2026...
I don't know why these facts are not better known. I think the media is a for hire propaganda industry and the narrative are uniformly misleading. I have been trading oil all my life so my "bullshit meter" is quite precise. I may not know something exactly because there are so many nuances and details to keep in mind... but I know when something is not right. it just takes me time to sift the facts and finally figure it out.
The tell is always when prices do not validate narratives. From that point you just have to work backwards until ... you get to the truth.
I don't question your experience as a trader which is why I shell out my hard earned money every month. I spent 40 years on the upstream end of the business finding the stuff so that you'd have something to trade. But I see the price of oil plunge 5% on the strength of a Trump tweet only to bounce back 3 days later on different news. The market has become reactionary because there's so much conflicting information with no one able to separate truth from fiction.
My question, along the same lines, is: why do contracts for offshore drilling seem to be expanding if there is such a high level of reserves? Thanks!
If there is no disruption why did the US agree to the SPR release? I am old enough to remember Trump blasting Biden for SPR releases in 2022. If narrative follows price, if an entity can effect price and vol, that entity can effect the narrative. If there truly is some master 5 D chess going on and Trump has this all under control, explain the US losing multiple military bases in the GCC and having to evacuate the Bahrain naval base. Just like TDS creates blind spots the opposite of TDS creates blind spots. Trump in 2026 is not the Trump who ran in 2024. Something shifted.
Hi Brett, I'm focusing on supply of crude oil and the perception there's a shortage of it. Strategic reserves were created to be released when needed. The banks and gurus on X have been spinning the narrative we will effectively run out of reserves ar 7 to7.5 billion barrels. That sounded fishy to me so I got the facts and wrote about them ...
Trump posted this 20 minutes ago TRUTH..
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
May 23, 2026, 4:30 PM
Fair enough. You mentioned you started digging as narrative didn't match price. Multiple oil hedge fund and private equity oil participants indicated they believe oil is being capped around $100. These same hedge funds have had good years so far so are not blaming shit risk management on outside risk factors. Bessent said selling futures was on the table to warn the market ahead of time. Japan just did the same. A citadel oil trader is on record of having convsations with the admin about oil markets. If price leads narrative then if someone can effect price they can effect narrative. I don't know enough about SPR operational levels. It is my understanding that the levels don't matter as much as daily max flow rates which may be around 2 mbd on a global basis.
First rule of Chinese data... don't trust chinese data.
BTW I saw last night an explanation for why China hasn't drawn their surplus. They have forced their refiners to adjust to lower import level .
JJ, do you believe that status quo in SoH won’t tighten crude oil and oil products inventories further, even if conflict is not resolved and free passage of oil through SoH is not restored? Has global SnD reached equilibrium at this price range of 100-120$ per bbl of Brent, to your opinion?
JJ, thanks for this update. while my expertise is not oil per se, I have been in the markets for 45 years and have a fair sense of how things ought to behave. it is often said that narrative follows price, and I think that is generally true. however, in this case, it is very clearly not the case. rather the narrative is making a huge effort to overcome the price action but to what exact end I do not know. are there some large specs or traders caught offside, long oil at higher levels trying to get it back toward the early march highs so they can cut and run? I would not be surprised if Iran, itself, was pushing the narrative as an attempted psyop against Trump and the US.
But no matter how I look at the oil market, there is no evidence there is a shortage of any kind globally. certainly, there are places that have seen interruptions in their previous supplies, but it's around.
ironically, if it is Iran working to keep the price higher, it will really backfire on them as more production comes online elsewhere that removes them from the equation, at least over time