almost all quiet
market vibes
March 21…)
Today is the first day of spring or the vernal equinox: a single revolution of the planet wherein the Earth's axis is tilted neither toward nor away from the Sun, resulting in equal amounts of daylight and darkness at all points of the globe. It’s going to be a nice day to get out and feed the squirrels.
In the news
No economic data releases of any kind today. Baker Hughes rig count at 1 PM EDT.
According to BBG this morning: Chinese imports of US crude oil and LNG are down 44% yoy in 2025 in retaliation to US tariffs (not bullish, imo).
Walmart and other US importers are asking Chinese exporters to cut prices (BBG). In my opinion, the link between inflation and tariffs is overstated. If retailers could raise prices before tariffs, they would have raised them. They’re not the Red Cross. If they raise them now, their earnings will tank. I think foreign exporters to America get this. WMT looks iffy, I think.
Germany's parliament on Tuesday passed an historic bill unlocking a record level of state borrowing for defence and infrastructure through amending, vitiating the country's constitutionally enshrined fiscal rules (bullish gold over time). Bunds in white, eur/usd in blue. More bonds coming to markets everywhere.
In the markets
About 30 million shares of SLV (ounces of silver) options struck between $27 and $32 per share will expire at 4:00 PM EDT.
May silver is down 30 cents to start the day. Looking at the slate of calls to expire we could see lower price by the close.
In oil this morning, WTI open interest fell 9000 lots on the sanction news yesterday, indicating short covering of poorly located risk. Prices are about 70 cents off their highs.
There is an obsessive focus on supply in energy markets with the JMMC restart, confusing OPEC quotas, Iranian sanctions, Chinese embargoes, Canadian tariffs on 80% of their production, the Chevron extension in Venezuela, and “drill baby drill”… it’s just crazy how mixed up everything is in oil.
No one is paying any attention to guys like Jeff Gundlach saying, “recession…”
Stocks are lower. They can’t seem to hold a rally, probably because there is a sloshing “pass-around” supply of shares in the market. Longs selling to longs selling to longs as the auction swirls around and around looking for balance.
The sellers won’t be back for a while and the buyers are not sticky yet. In a larger sense, so much tension and testosterone has gushed out of the board; these ranges could be here for everything until we see what happens in April after Trump’s “liberation day”.
The rest of the board is a motionless still-life, except gold… FX, fixed income, oil, and equities …like a patient etherized upon a table (TSE).
my vibe
There was a time when a triple witching had meaning. Game day. Game face. Now it’s a bucket of dead bait. Usually high volume and tiny ranges … just Wall Street counting its money. It’s been a long time since “households” have lost this kind of PnL. And no one is telling them candidly they’re probably not getting it back for a while, except gold perhaps.
No one seems willing to admit Bitcoin was turned into a financial “Stepford wife” last year. Crypto has morphed into a melting pot of has-beens and blockchain wannabees. Saylor is a madman. The mags are so high (still), 30% growth next year is bad, seriously. And no one is willing to admit a gallon of gasoline is cheaper today in the NY harbor than it was 20 years ago. All they talk about is eggs.
“In the spring at the end of the day, you should smell like dirt.” Margaret Atwood.. (I plan to)
Happy Friday friends.
JJ
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Two comments this morning:
1. Thank you for saying "an historic..." instead of "a historic..." I'm not again evolution of language etc, but some things are good to keep IMO.
B. Yep, no way that's real. There's still a few miles of uncanny desert between that video and the far side of the uncanny valley lol.
It is ALWAYS a good day to feed 🐿️s and was fully sated by the BTC as Stepford Wife line. I so agree that the ETFs (and associated option chains) have neutered its right tail. Not a believer but had considered schmuck insurance via deep OTM call spreads in IBIT but now really suspect it’s just a waste of money and brain space.