a tisket a tasket, eggs in a basket

market vibes

June 11…)

“A dame that knows the ropes isn't likely to get tied up.” Mae West

In the shadow of CPI each month are lesser data updating real earnings which ….

… no one pays much attention to because they’ve been so low. But the trend is rising.

The API reported builds in products and crude last night. The DOE reports at 10:30 today. I will be watching imports to see if KSA repeats notable exports to the US again this week, especially in excess of 600k bpd; also total US production to see if the abrupt drop in rigs last month is evident in barrels per day, and demand for all products, plus implied demand data, in light of the steep decline in the RBOB notional crack.

In the News

The US and China agree to outlines of a trade deal. Musk says he went too far with his tweets. Bessent’s name is floated as Fed Chair. He has the credentials. Some angst about the Treasury auctions this week. The 3-year seemed to go okay yesterday.

In oil, Trump said he’s getting “less confident” about Iran talks (NY Post 06/11/2025 06:13:02). Prices popped $0.70 per barrel. Oil is the only market responsive to these on/off discussions. I would think if the United States were going into a hot war with Iran, other markets would have a voice in the matter.

In the Markets

Stocks are chill, platinum takes the lead, risks in oil become immeasurable, a 10 year and 30 year T auction has the bond markets on edge and bitcoin “goes its own way”, plus managing our eggs in the vibe…