a quick update
market vibes
February 12…)
“Sell in May and go away.” Adage from the 19th century (just a friendly reminer)
There’s little in the news for market vibes readers today. Exiting home sales fell the most MOM since 2022. Thursday jobs data was soft.
Following on BLS hot data on Wednesday, this from a credible poster on X (source attribution: BLS).
in the markets
It was so slow again today, I decided to wait for enough development in the day structure to send a few lines updating the markets. I should have strted earlier. Silver dropped $5 while I’ve been tapping the keys.
The down wiggle in WTI I noted yesterday is developing lower. A wiggle is a primary high (A) followed by a reaction high (B) followed by a 3rd high (C) exceeding the reaction high (B) but not the primary high (A). When prices close under (B) the wiggle is in force. I learned this from Marty Armstrong in the 80s when he was the enfant terrible in the silver market. I was his silver broker. Wiggles work but… when they fail, “A failed wiggle is better than a wiggle.” (ht JM)
Open interest is slightly lower but still relatively high (since 2022) and sentiment still bullish on social media. The Netanyahu snub at the White House yesterday implied to me Trump was not going to gratuitously bomb Iran and Bibi’s partisan lust for war among some hawks here and in Israel is getting tedious. JIC the world missed the memo… Trump is pro peace.
The oil markets have been ready for war since early January. Russia is pumping as usual. Venezuela is coming online. Demand is fine in America. India did a reasonable deal with Trump.
Gold just took out the bottom of the range since the rally last Friday.
