a nano probability
October 30…)
“There is a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.” Steven Wright
In the news
Sparse data today as the shutdown continues. EIA natty as usual at 10:30. Trump comes home with a satchel of goodwill and a draw in China, which is actually a big win for both sides. Rare earth exports will restart and punitive tariffs will relax..
Trump directed the Pentagon to “immediately” resume full-scale nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992. The U.S. conducted 1,054 nuclear tests between 1945 and 1992, mostly in Nevada and the Pacific. In 1992, Congress imposed a testing moratorium amid growing international pressure for arms control. This led to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which bans all explosive nuclear tests. The U.S. signed it but has never ratified it, yet has adhered to the voluntary ban.
According to Grok: Since 1992, the U.S. has relied on non-explosive experiments using plutonium to simulate weapon performance without a chain reaction and a $20+ billion annual program to maintain 3,800 warheads without live tests. “Immediate” preparation could mean tests within months; likely underground detonations of nuclear devices to verify designs, fix aging components, or develop new low-yield tactical weapons (e.g., for hypersonic missiles). These would measure yield, radiation, and blast effects, starting small (sub-kiloton yields) and scaling up. The Pentagon would need to reactivate infrastructure, which has been mothballed but maintained.
It seems Trump’s trip left more than trade and tariffs on his mind. In the end, no matter how efficient a fleet of drones and AI robotic attack weapons, the great equalizer is still mutually assured destruction.
The Artic Frost investigations are rolling downhill, big league. AI may be disruptive for lawyers, but it’s an equally powerful form of forensic investigation. Maria B., “The rot is so deep it’s unbelievable.”
Game 6 of the series in Toronto. The Jays lead 3/2…
In the markets
A trade at or close below the low in S&ps last Friday will negate this rally and create a “trapped money” setup. Gold and silver are developing horizontally at still lofty levels. oil is trading at bare minumum of liquidity, and bitcoin is still trying to find its mojo. Bonds are accelerating lower and AI might be bullish for the dollar in the vibe.
