a moonless night
market vibes
June 28…)
“Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.” Mae West
The BLS reported the Fed’s preferred inflation data this morning at 8:30 AM EDT. Taken as a whole, the obsession with a nominal 2% goal is beginning to seem anthropomorphic. We’re not taming lions.
Spending is nearly zero and declining. Income is expected to be sharply lower. For years, the Fed was obsessed with lifting PCE above 2%. These data would have been a home run in Yellen’s tenure. Dovish data this morning? You decide.
In the news
The deal with China is closing and 10 more deals are right behind it. Tariffs are a non-monetary one-time bump in prices and not inflationary, according to pundits, and offset with billions of income for the Treasury. We’ll see. If the success of them is stimulative, there will be growth and demand inflation.
In oil, Iran is talking tough but selling oil apace. They ended their policy of international inspection yesterday. The narrative is war damage is so bad they don’t want anyone to assess it. OPEC is meeting on July 6 to confirm another scheduled increase in quotas. The hawks are still trying to gin up more war, but the market is saying it’s over. Even if there is another exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, those are the rallies you sell and say thank you.
Analysts are forecasting S&P 500 profit growth of just 2.8% in the second quarter, blaming tariffs, down from a consensus 7% at the end of Q1. If that unfolds, it will be the smallest increase in two years (sources various/Google AI).
In the markets
In the markets
The dollar is still weak.
Covering lower gold, steady silver, platinum at the top, stocks headed for a record and oil this morning…. Plus an outlook for quarter end and years to come in the vibe…
