a material world
market vibes
July 1…)
“It is not materialism that is the chief curse of the world, as pastors teach, but idealism. Men get into trouble by taking their visions and hallucinations too seriously.” HL Mencken
ISM and JOLTS at 10:10 AM EDT
In the news
Trump and Musk trade barbs. Without a Washington portfolio, Musk is just another billionaire. Trump is in his element, wheeling and dealing. The bill will certainly pass. It’s a lifetime opportunity for the political class to get obscenely rich, and that is the president’s strategy: create an event so laden with lucre, the bill will pass itself.
What does Trump want?Three things:
Build “The Great Wall” and weld the border shut forever, if possible.
He wants to borrow a few trillion and invest it in America, not playing a board game, putting a bunch of chips on whimsy like climate change, but busting open the energy piggy bank in partnership with the most successful businessmen and women on the planet. Successful civilizations will always be plutocratic. The question facing our future is whether to be ethical or evil.
Third, I think he wants to lift the American people out of ignorance and poverty. A nation is not a government or a central bank; it is its future generations. Unfortunately H L Mencken was probably right, but then again, Gordon Gekko would disagree. You decide.
In the markets
DXY accelerating lower into 3 days of employment data and newsy gems like the fastest rate of rising wages in decades. Andy Fately wrote yesterday in my subscriber comments: “I think the dollar is going to be much more responsive to the BBB and its passage than to the Fed. That is an enormous amount of stimulus.” He might be onto something.
Gold is back to the middle of the range on typically light volume and open interest that hasn’t moved in 60 days. I personally think the major reason OI is inert is the very inventories that occupy at least 50% of the short side of the book. Specs are not in the game in America, so the OI on the long side is similarly inert. Actually, specs don’t exist in meaningful numbers anymore. That constituency is BlackRock at $11T, banks, Citadel, etc., and their ilk… and their algos.
Another reason the spec is extinct is a generational void in education and training that was once a father-to-son guild. We don’t have speculators because no one knows how to do it. In a few years, perhaps already now, only AI will carry the baton.
A technical test for silver looms, copper about to leap, platinum is not a fleeting whim, and the new new thing in stocks is old… and a few cheap shots at AI in the vibe. Here we go!
