a last minute deal
market vibes
in the news
Via BBG April 6: Axios reported US allies are pressing for a last-minute deal with Iran, citing sources with knowledge of the talks. A 45 day ceasefire is reportedly on the table. The people, who were not named, said chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low.
in the markets… nothing is moving so I’ll go straight to the vibe.
my vibe
The mood of the world this morning is probably like the mood of the world in early June 1944. Southern England was packed with troops, vehicles, and ships and soldiers. The buildup was obvious but the landings at Normandy were still top secret. So far this war really hasn’t been a war. It has been a conflict with rules and referees. Mortality has been incredibly light because the US mission is capitulation of the leaders and minimal destruction to the Iranian nation. In other words a negotiation with precision violence and no blood.
So far the military part has unfolded according to plan but the desired outcomes have not. That disconnect is about to end soon, one way or another. It is ironic that for 81 years the threat of mutually assured destruction has restrained world leaders from the use of nukes. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine consumes human life at a rate well in excess of a nuclear weapon (had one been used in February 2022) because “WMD” has become an anachronism and WME (weapons of mass effect) and WMD*2 (weapons of mass disruption) have totally changed the way wars are fought.
In my opinion, an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause the very same catastrophic outcomes as an modern single strike device via global deprivation of 30% of the world’s crude oil. Targeting desalination plants, the sole sources of water for millions in the GCC region, or the complete destruction of utilities serving millions in Iran would equal the same prolonged suffering as a single WMD device killing millions.
what is a weapon of mass destruction in 2026?
