September 16…)
In the news
Trump gets another memo. MSNBC blames Trump’s incendiary rhetoric. I think a Trump victory will save them… and CNN (it’s almost not worth it!). In financial news according to BBG, Bill Dudley late of the NY Fed, thinks the Fed will “go big”.
In the markets
Among the things that didn’t happen last week: US interest rates were obsequiously silent in front of FOMC meetings tomorrow and Wednesday and a conspicuous lack of suspense precedes the Fed Statement. USD/JPY missed a new 2024 low by .04 bps on Friday (blew through it this morning). Spot heat cracks did not rally with WTI, in fact they plunged to new life of contract lows again this morning in early trading.
Things that did happen in markets last week: Copper started a slow but determined auction higher. Equity indexes ripped higher (chart below) on a tenth of a percent higher miss in a boring CPI report on Wednesday and decelerated on dispositive PPI on Thursday.
Neither of these reports would have normally had any impact on markets but gold made new all-time highs and silver was just wow.
Silver made a low of $28.035 on Monday September 9. From its May highs to its Sept lows on Sept 9, OI fell from 189,145 to 128, 605k lots or 60, 540 lots, or 302,700, 000 toz. This is huge, especially since prices remained unchanged for half of the course of liquidation. Silver is a flat price market. The only forwards that trade are rolls. Therefore, someone sold ca 27k/28k lots of silver >135 mm toz, and someone bought it.
What we have seen is a liquidation of 300 mm toz paper silver equal to the total of Comex registered and eligible silver physical inventories combined (next chart) … followed by a vertical price void last week rallying > 10% in 5 sessions on higher highs and higher lows and rising volume. Meanwhile gold made all-time highs. XPD and XPT rallied 20% and 10% respectively.
On what? A tenth of a % uptick in MOM CPI ex food and energy? You decide.
In the curious category
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