September 16…)
Out of boredom today, I noted some episodic highlights in the last 4 years at NDX chart points to see if there might have been a common theme (there isn’t). However, to say the pandemic was the most bullish event in the history of markets goes without debate. No wonder the blob keeps trying to start another!
“Run hot” and the first and last hikes all happened at the same NDX index price. We snuck in a couple of wars in the middle which by the way are toasty warm. Migrant madness was going full tilt all the while, both very trendy bull market items. An interesting coincky-dink is Kamala was “nominated” on August 5! No one even noticed.
“Perfect landing” is the new narrative for the next 48 hours. The market thinks the FOMC will cut 50 on Wednesday not because the Yen and gold are small beer. Or Goldilocks has sniffles. It’s simply time to party on.
my vibe,
Nothing happened today, portentous of tomorrow’s thriller. I’d like to suggest a 4-day weekend preceding every FOMC meeting. There’s really no point in getting everyone to gook at a dead screen for two whole days waiting for 10 minutes of algo madness that no one can trade.
If the chart above has any indicative value, it is that an FF cut of .25 or .50 bps doesn’t matter. The markets know it’s going much lower, and patience has never been one of money's virtues. It’s going to be interesting to see how Powell cuts rates .50 into a stock bubble without popping it.
Good luck in Asia
JJ
**always a taker of ideas and views**
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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg
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"No wonder the blob keeps trying to start another!"
I've come around to appreciating "muscle memory" as a somewhat predictable driver of certain, hit-and-run type rallies.
"I’d like to suggest a 4-day weekend preceding every FOMC meeting. There’s really no point in getting everyone to gook at a dead screen for two whole days waiting for 10 minutes of algo madness that no one can trade."
Too funny and also not funny. This time around I'm trying something different: NVDA puts and VIX calls into FOMC and maybe a day or two after. So far it feels very cathartic.
Derek
Isn’t there something about Markets tending to Zig, when we’re expecting a Zag?
Place your bets. 🔮